The geopolitical and economic landscape has provided an unhelpful backdrop to the deals market over recent years; with elections and political shifts in major economies as well as conflicts and persistent inflation, uncertainty has been a constant theme.
Despite these challenges, the deals market showed resilience in 2024, and we saw an uptick in deal volumes compared to 2023, with private equity (PE) remaining a significant player. We helped our clients to complete 266 deals, a 30% increase on 2023, with a 10% increase in PE related deals (63% of our total deal volume). There was an international element to 44% of our deals, compared to 35% in 2023, as UK assets remained attractive to overseas investors. While valuations have remained relatively stable, there was still some buyer-seller price misalignment and we’ve seen more earn outs as buyers and sellers seek to reconcile their valuation expectations.
The IPO market has been more challenging, with few successful listings. However, there has been an increase in take-private transactions and a shift from AIM to the Main Market. The early signs are that appetite for Initial Public Offerings (IPO) will increase in 2025. We are certainly receiving more enquiries from businesses looking to list. The London Stock Exchange’s AIM and Growth Companies Forum being oversubscribed, another positive sign for the next two to three years.
While normalisation of inflation and interest rates has proved to be stickier than initially anticipated, there is a general acceptance regarding the direction of travel. This has given lenders renewed confidence in supporting prospective borrowers. We continue to see polarisation in lender appetite, but the market has largely proven resilient because of the range of debt options available. In recent months we also have seen pricing come in as lenders compete for the stronger credits.
The completion of several elections has provided a clearer picture of the political environment, which we expect to positively impact deal-making activities. In the UK, the political landscape is set for the next 5 years, with the Government’s stated focus being on economic growth and stability. This should provide a more predictable environment for businesses and investors, but ongoing inflation and challenges with growth continue to test businesses and the investors trying to value them. As ever, our advice is to be prepared.
Whether buying of selling, early preparation remains critical for successful transactions. Businesses should ideally start planning at least three years in advance, focusing on management team capability and capacity, evidencing the growth strategy, working capital management, and diligence readiness.
Key steps in preparing for a successful transaction include:
The deployment of advanced data analytics and artificial intelligence (AI) in due diligence has increasingly become standard practice, particularly in larger transactions. This has led to more sophisticated analysis of target companies and deeper understanding of value drivers. Diligence providers can access more data and process / analyse it quicker. This results in higher expectations from investors, who want to see targets operating with a high-quality data environment and expect to see detailed underpinning to historical and future trading trends. Businesses need to leverage technology to gain deeper insights and improve transaction outcomes.
Companies and investors need to consider the impact of new UK accounting standards (including revised revenue recognition and lease accounting) that will impact deal structures (for example completion accounts, earn outs) and valuations (as EBITDA, working capital and net debt will change); businesses need to stay abreast of these changes and ensure the impact is understood to avoid potential deal disruptions.
ESG is starting to move beyond the box-ticking to become integral to transactions. Impact investors are particularly interested in businesses with strong social and environmental credentials. Companies need to ensure they develop robust ESG strategies to attract investment and improve valuations.
As we move into 2025, the deals market presents both opportunities and challenges. Success will likely favour well-prepared businesses that can demonstrate strong fundamentals, clear growth potential, and robust operational capabilities. While uncertainty persists in the broader economic environment, the market has demonstrated resilience and adaptation, suggesting continued activity for high-quality assets and well-executed transactions.
The emphasis on thorough preparation, technological capability and strong management teams will remain paramount. Businesses that can effectively address these elements while navigating the evolving regulatory landscape will be best positioned to achieve successful outcomes in the year ahead.
Discover our comprehensive guide to the latest trends and shifts in M&A activity in the key economic sectors. You can find out more about emerging market opportunities, analysis of performance and trends, and predictions which include our PE trends for 2025.