UK business confidence remains high ahead of Autumn Budget
UK business confidence remains high ahead of Autumn Budget
- Business confidence remains high but at a crossroad amid looming Autumn Budget, ongoing challenges in the jobs market, and continued macroeconomic volatility
- BDO Output Index dips to 98.19 in September, as supply chain disruption and rising shipping costs impacted the manufacturing sector
- The rise in domestic demand across the technology, real estate, and leisure sub-sectors presents significant growth opportunities for services
- Employment Index drops to its lowest level since January 2013, marking the fifteenth consecutive decline
UK business confidence rose slightly in September as companies pinned their hopes on further interest rate cuts this year, despite a weakening labour market, stubborn inflation and uncertainty around the new Labour Government’s first Autumn Budget, according to the latest Business Trends report from business advisory and accountancy firm, BDO.
The BDO Optimism Index rose to 100.42, remaining above the 100-point mark for a fifth consecutive month – a strong indicator of confidence in the business community. However, this increased optimism stands in stark contrast to the challenges faced by many businesses. The BDO Output Index dropped by 1.52 points to 98.19 in September, as both the manufacturing and services sectors struggled to maintain momentum from the previous month.
Manufacturing, in particular, faced renewed job cuts due to subdued demand, while supply chain disruptions and rising shipping costs, exacerbated by the Red Sea crisis, have led to longer delivery times and higher raw material costs.
While Output in the services sector also dipped compared to the previous month, it remained elevated relative to the last two years and above the 95-point mark that indicates overall growth. This was largely fuelled by a rise in domestic demand, notably across the technology, real estate and leisure sub-sectors. However, businesses within the service sector have noted that uncertainty surrounding the upcoming Autumn Budget has prompted clients to delay their investment decisions.
The BDO Inflation Index eased slightly in September, dropping to 96.41. But whilst input prices decreased, the persistent rise in consumer prices – particularly for services - suggests that inflationary pressures could resurface in the coming months.
Meanwhile, the BDO Employment Index saw its fifteenth consecutive decline, dropping to 95.45 – its lowest point since January 2013.
The loosening labour market is evidenced by slowing wage growth and a continued decline in job vacancies. Although the Bank of England’s recent interest rate cut has been welcomed, its effects have yet to filter through to the labour market, meaning relief for job seekers could be slow to arrive.
According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), UK job vacancies fell by 42,000 in the three months to August, marking the 26th period of consecutive decline. While unemployment has eased slightly, the volatility in labour market data signals that businesses are treading cautiously in their hiring decisions amid continued economic uncertainty.
Kaley Crossthwaite, Partner at BDO said: “As the Autumn Budget draws closer, businesses are looking to the new Government for a clear roadmap. Optimism may prove fragile if policy decisions don’t deliver the necessary support and clarity, especially whilst the Employment Index shows signs of sustained weakness.
“Promising areas like technology offer a beacon of hope, but targeted government investment, especially around skills development, is needed to help stimulate jobs growth.”
ENDS
Overview of the BDO indices
An overview of all four indices is provided in the table below, detailing figures for the last three months and the same month of the previous year, to allow for comparison. 100 = average value. Above 95 = positive.
BDO’s Business Trends is a ‘poll of polls’ and comprises multiple surveys covering 4,000 respondents. Further information on outputs is available on request, but please note the Labour Force Survey is not one of them.
| September 2024 (Figures for this report) | August 2024 |
July 2024 |
June 2024 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BDO Optimism Index | 100.42 | 100.33 | 102.22 | 102.09 |
| BDO Output Index | 98.19 | 99.71 | 97.92 | 96.78 |
| BDO Inflation Index | 96.41 | 96.79 | 97.76 | 97.72 |
| BDO Employment Index | 95.45 | 95.89 | 96.33 | 96.77 |
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